Class 12 Mathematics CORRELATION AND REGRESSION Notes

Correlation and Regression Notes | Nepal eNotes

Unit 13

Statistics and Probability

Class 12 Mathematics

Correlation and Regression

Class 12 Mathematics – Correlation and Regression Notes PDF

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NEB / CDC Focus

This unit covers correlation and its nature, Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient and interpretation, and regression with the regression lines of y on x and x on y.

1. Correlation

Correlation

Correlation measures the degree and direction of association between two quantitative variables.

Examples include height and weight, advertising and sales, temperature and electricity use, or marks in two subjects. Correlation describes association; by itself it does not prove causation.

Correlation ≠ Causation

A strong correlation can occur because of common causes, coincidence, selection effects, or indirect relationships. Do not automatically interpret correlation as cause and effect.

2. Nature and Types of Correlation

TypeDescription
PositiveAs x increases, y tends to increase.
NegativeAs x increases, y tends to decrease.
Zero / no linear correlationNo clear linear tendency.
Perfect positiver=+1
Perfect negativer=−1
Nature of Correlation Positive Negative Near zero
Figure 1: Scatter patterns reveal direction and approximate strength of linear association.

3. Scatter Diagram

A scatter diagram plots every paired observation (x,y). Before calculating a coefficient, it is useful for checking direction, form, outliers and whether a linear summary is sensible.

Interpretation
  • Points rising left-to-right suggest positive correlation.
  • Points falling left-to-right suggest negative correlation.
  • Closer clustering around a straight line suggests stronger linear correlation.
Strength of Positive Correlation A tighter cloud around a rising line means stronger positive linear correlation.
Figure 2: Scatter diagram as a visual check before numerical calculation.

4. Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient

Pearson’s r

Karl Pearson’s coefficient measures the strength and direction of linear correlation between two variables.

4.1 Deviation-from-Mean Form

Let x=X−X̄ and y=Y−Ȳ. Then

r = Σxy / √(Σx² Σy²).

4.2 Direct Computational Form

r=[nΣXY−(ΣX)(ΣY)] / √{[nΣX²−(ΣX)²][nΣY²−(ΣY)²]}.
Range
−1 ≤ r ≤ +1.

4.3 Calculation Table

XYXY
Compute ΣX, ΣY, ΣX², ΣY² and ΣXY.
Pearson Correlation Calculation Flow Paired data(X,Y) Build columnsX², Y², XYthen sum Substituteobtain r
Figure 3: A structured calculation reduces arithmetic errors.

5. Interpretation of the Correlation Coefficient

rLinear association
r=+1Perfect positive
0<r<1Positive, strength increases as r approaches +1
r=0No linear correlation
−1<r<0Negative, strength increases as r approaches −1
r=−1Perfect negative
Do Not Overstate r

The magnitude of r measures linear association. A value near zero can still occur when variables have a strong nonlinear relationship.

Correlation Scale −10+1 perfect negativeno linear trendperfect positive
Figure 4: Sign gives direction; distance from zero indicates linear strength.

6. Regression

Regression

Regression studies the average relationship between variables and provides an equation for estimating one variable from the other.

There are two regression lines:

  • Regression of y on x: used to estimate y from a known x.
  • Regression of x on y: used to estimate x from a known y.
Direction Matters

The line of y on x and the line of x on y are generally not the same equation and are used for different prediction directions.

7. Regression Lines

7.1 Regression Line of y on x

y−ȳ = b_yx(x−x̄).

where

b_yx = r(σ_y/σ_x).

7.2 Regression Line of x on y

x−x̄ = b_xy(y−ȳ).

where

b_xy = r(σ_x/σ_y).
Common Point

Both regression lines pass through (x̄,ȳ).

Two Regression Lines (x̄,ȳ)y on xx on y
Figure 5: Both regression lines pass through the mean point, but generally have different orientations.

8. Regression Coefficients

b_yx and b_xy are the regression coefficients.

b_yx=rσ_y/σ_xb_xy=rσ_x/σ_y

Useful properties:

  • Both regression coefficients have the same sign as r.
  • The product satisfies b_yx b_xy = r².
  • Therefore r=±√(b_yx b_xy), with sign matching the regression coefficients.
Relationship Among r and Regression Coefficients b_yxy on x b_xyx on y = product
Figure 6: The product of the two regression coefficients equals r².

9. Correlation and Regression Together

CorrelationRegression
Measures degree/direction of linear association.Provides estimating equations.
Symmetric in x and y.Distinguishes y on x from x on y.
Coefficient r is unit-free and lies from −1 to +1.Regression coefficients depend on scale and direction.
Does not by itself give a prediction equation.Used to estimate one variable from the other.

10. Worked Examples

Example 1: Pearson r by Direct Formula

For paired values (1,2),(2,4),(3,6), the points lie exactly on Y=2X, so r=+1.

Example 2: Perfect Negative

For (1,6),(2,4),(3,2), Y=8−2X exactly, so r=−1.

Example 3: Regression y on x

Suppose x̄=10, ȳ=20, r=0.8, σ_x=2, σ_y=5.

b_yx=0.8(5/2)=2.

Thus y−20=2(x−10), or y=2x.

Example 4: Regression x on y

Using the same values,

b_xy=0.8(2/5)=0.32.

So x−10=0.32(y−20).

Example 5: Find r from Regression Coefficients

If b_yx=0.75 and b_xy=0.48, both positive:

r=+√(0.75×0.48)=√0.36=0.6.

Example 6: Prediction

If regression line of y on x is y=3+2x, then for x=5, estimated y=13.

Which Regression Line Should You Use? x is knownestimate yUse y on x y is knownestimate xUse x on y
Figure 7: Select the regression line according to the variable being predicted.

11. Common Mistakes

Correlation as causation

Association alone does not establish cause and effect.

r outside range

A correctly calculated Pearson coefficient must satisfy −1≤r≤1.

Wrong XY column

Multiply corresponding paired observations only.

Regression line reversed

Use y on x to estimate y from x; x on y to estimate x from y.

Ignoring sign

The signs of both regression coefficients match the sign of r.

Treating r=0 as independence

r=0 means no linear correlation, not necessarily no relationship at all.

12. Formula Sheet

r=Σxy/√(Σx²Σy²) r=[nΣXY−ΣXΣY]/√{[nΣX²−(ΣX)²][nΣY²−(ΣY)²]} y−ȳ=b_yx(x−x̄)x−x̄=b_xy(y−ȳ) b_yx=rσ_y/σ_xb_xy=rσ_x/σ_y b_yx b_xy=r²r=±√(b_yx b_xy)

13. Important Exam Questions

Short

  1. Define correlation and regression.
  2. Describe positive, negative and zero correlation.
  3. State the range and interpretation of Pearson’s r.
  4. Distinguish correlation from regression.
  5. State equations of both regression lines.

Long / Numerical

  1. Find Karl Pearson’s coefficient from paired data and interpret it.
  2. Construct and interpret a scatter diagram.
  3. Find regression line of y on x.
  4. Find regression line of x on y.
  5. Find r from two regression coefficients.
  6. Use a regression line to estimate an unknown value.

14. One-Minute Revision

  • Correlation measures direction and strength of linear association.
  • −1≤r≤1.
  • Positive r means variables tend to move together; negative r means opposite directions.
  • r=0 means no linear correlation.
  • Pearson’s r is unit-free.
  • Regression provides prediction equations.
  • Use y on x when x is given and y is to be estimated.
  • Use x on y when y is given and x is to be estimated.
  • Both regression lines pass through (x̄,ȳ).
  • b_yx b_xy=r².
  • Correlation does not prove causation.

15. Diagram Practice

  • Positive, negative and zero scatter plots.
  • Strong positive scatter plot.
  • Pearson calculation flow.
  • Correlation scale from −1 to +1.
  • Two regression lines through the mean point.
  • Relationship between r and regression coefficients.
  • Regression-line selection diagram.

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